No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $26.7
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $3.3
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $7.2
Polymarket Trader
mrgadget1963
0x4ece50eee10a4cb1d25fb20dc357811dd68f151f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $54.87
- Realized PnL
- $4.07
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 1
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.9%
- Current value
- $28.17
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $1.83
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $4.87
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $4.07
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 77.6% 12.35 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 38% 37 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 27% 37 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 65% 30 shares