Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.3%
- Current value
- $12.25
- Potential payout
- $23
- Potential profit
- $10.75
- Multiplier
- 1.88x
- User PnL
- -$1.16
Polymarket Trader
0x4ef8...9792
0x4ef8cc0868d15b47add15a2951afd81fb76d9792
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $34.65
- Realized PnL
- $5.91
- Win rate
- 57.9%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 19
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $9
- User PnL
- -$5.49
No position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $7.97
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $1.04
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $3.47
Yes position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.3%
- Current value
- $1.37
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $7.63
- Multiplier
- 6.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $6.32
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $0.81
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $6.2
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$2.7
No position
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $3.58
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $0.42
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.62
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $4.79
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $2.16
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $1.09
Yes position
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
Yes position
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
No position
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.84
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.6%
- Multiplier
- 3.50x
- User PnL
- -$2.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?No 82% 7 shares
- Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?Yes 6.6% 27 shares
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No 86.1% 5 shares
- U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?No 91% 6 shares
- U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?Yes 9% 15 shares
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?Yes 4.8% 30 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 51.9% 5 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 48.1% 9 shares
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No 93% 15 shares
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?Yes 7% 27 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 58.3% 8 shares
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes 85% 7 shares