Polymarket Trader

0x4f12242451c46CBE08bC7A94fF2BA0DE3f595143-1778951707128

0x4f12242451c46cbe08bc7a94ff2ba0de3f595143

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $198.49
Realized PnL: $469.81
Win rate: 60%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $991.85
Potential profit: $991.85
User PnL: -$65.1

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $69.25
Potential payout: $427.48
Potential profit: $358.23
Multiplier: 6.17x
User PnL: $39.85

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 20.3%
Current value: $63.77
Potential payout: $313.51
Potential profit: $249.74
Multiplier: 4.92x
User PnL: $42.79

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $238.94
Potential profit: $238.94
User PnL: -$43

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 15.3%
Current value: $22.38
Potential payout: $146.74
Potential profit: $124.36
Multiplier: 6.56x
User PnL: $8.56

Yes position

Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $124.76
Potential profit: $124.76
User PnL: -$48.96

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $15.26
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $90
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$4.74

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $6.7
Potential payout: $63.49
Potential profit: $56.79
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $7.97
Potential payout: $57.55
Potential profit: $49.58
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $2.92
Potential payout: $54.55
Potential profit: $51.63
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$0.08

Canada position

World Championships: Canada vs. Finland

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.24
Potential profit: $54.24
User PnL: -$10.43

Yes position

Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.22
Potential profit: $54.22
User PnL: -$4.88

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $10.03
Potential payout: $51.81
Potential profit: $41.79
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$25

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $45
User PnL: -$4.95

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.33
Potential profit: $38.33
User PnL: -$4.6

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.03
Potential profit: $21.03
User PnL: -$14.72

Yes position

Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $9.11
Potential profit: $8.89
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$0.79

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.91

No position

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.27

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.67

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.27

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.62

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: $40.53

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.48

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.54

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.72

Yes position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 17.8%
Multiplier: 5.62x
User PnL: -$3.19

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 13.9% 57.55 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12.6% 63.49 shares
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Yes 17.2% 97.6 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.5% 54.55 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19.3% 51.81 shares
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 12% 20 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Yes 29% 12.25 shares
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 5.9% 138.35 shares
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?

Yes 12% 38.33 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 68% 7 shares
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?

Yes 9% 54.22 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 68% 7.44 shares