Polymarket Trader

Runon

0x4f6a401443115b5ec2698966b48fc615f2d9f60c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $182.75
Realized PnL: $1.48K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.09K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $817.66
Potential profit: $817.66
User PnL: -$4.05

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $775
Potential profit: $775
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $590.49
Potential profit: $590.49
User PnL: -$13.34

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $531.83
Potential profit: $531.83
User PnL: -$17.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $349.99
Potential profit: $349.99
User PnL: -$18.42

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $323.16
Potential profit: $323.16
User PnL: -$13.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $278.98
Potential profit: $278.98
User PnL: -$18.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $273.76
Potential profit: $273.76
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $256.25
Potential profit: $256.25
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $239.99
Potential profit: $239.99
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $237.77
Potential profit: $237.77
User PnL: -$9.71

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $232.87
Potential profit: $232.87
User PnL: -$7.22

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $229.66
Potential profit: $229.66
User PnL: -$5.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $225.4
Potential profit: $225.4
User PnL: -$4.12

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.89
Potential profit: $209.89
User PnL: -$74.3

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200.31
Potential profit: $200.31
User PnL: -$1.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 91.4%
Current value: $182.75
Potential payout: $200.05
Potential profit: $17.3
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $168.51

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.65

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $111.2

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.89

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.79

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $72.71

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.26

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.65

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

Ends Dec 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.05

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.83

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.41

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?

Yes 8.6% 26.01 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?

Yes 8% 26.01 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?

Yes 33% 88 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?

Yes 5% 100 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?

Yes 25% 100 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?

Yes 0.1% 372.83 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18?

Yes 2% 100.38 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18?

Yes 6.1% 52.23 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18?

Yes 4.3% 34 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?

Yes 0.8% 159 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?

Yes 0.6% 213.84 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18?

Yes 3.2% 95.79 shares