Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $11.75
- Potential payout
- $313.3
- Potential profit
- $301.55
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Polymarket Trader
beliefsystems
0x4fa2a97c518bf507640d8d23f61b3cff2df0c7b7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $404.96
- Realized PnL
- $22.85
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $32.52
- Potential payout
- $309.68
- Potential profit
- $277.16
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.55
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $68.8
- Potential payout
- $305.79
- Potential profit
- $236.99
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $19.88
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $23.82
- Potential payout
- $280.2
- Potential profit
- $256.38
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $16.79
- Potential payout
- $159.87
- Potential profit
- $143.08
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $3.26
- Potential payout
- $138.85
- Potential profit
- $135.59
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$1.89
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $1.27
- Potential payout
- $101.25
- Potential profit
- $99.98
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.9%
- Current value
- $55.08
- Potential payout
- $65.65
- Potential profit
- $10.57
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $9.13
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $46.09
- Potential payout
- $65.38
- Potential profit
- $19.29
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $4.9
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $26.99
- Potential payout
- $56.83
- Potential profit
- $29.84
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $4.83
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.96
- Potential payout
- $53.76
- Potential profit
- $50.8
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.88
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $50.38
- Potential payout
- $50.56
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- User PnL
- $2.45
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $15.34
- Potential payout
- $29.78
- Potential profit
- $14.44
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $5.51
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $1.97
- Potential payout
- $28.21
- Potential profit
- $26.24
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $13.27
- Potential payout
- $26.8
- Potential profit
- $13.53
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$7.37
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $3.62
- Potential payout
- $23.36
- Potential profit
- $19.74
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.75
- Potential payout
- $23.35
- Potential profit
- $21.6
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.22
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $4.83
- Potential payout
- $21.46
- Potential profit
- $16.63
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$4.61
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $2.44
- Potential payout
- $20.32
- Potential profit
- $17.88
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.42
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Current value
- $11.94
- Potential payout
- $19.57
- Potential profit
- $7.63
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.22
- Potential payout
- $16.31
- Potential profit
- $15.09
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $4.62
- Potential payout
- $15.14
- Potential profit
- $10.52
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $2.36
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $11.93
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $12.24
- Potential profit
- $10.34
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.31
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.58
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $3.95
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.69
Yes position
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.66
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.55
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.38
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.86
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.77
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
No position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 309.68 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Yes 49% 8.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 39% 56.83 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes 93% 7.18 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No 88% 8.29 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No 63% 65.38 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 34% 15.14 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No 89% 5.44 shares
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?Yes 7% 16.31 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Yes 1.5% 101.25 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 13% 12.24 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 7% 28.21 shares