Polymarket Trader

smalle

0x4fabf203a93f2b9e25619caacdb29a4d89856206

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.25K
Realized PnL: $1.46K
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $1.81K
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $18.94
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.61

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $34.21
Potential payout: $526.32
Potential profit: $492.11
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$65.79

No position

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $211.68
Potential payout: $255.04
Potential profit: $43.36
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $11.68

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $179.24
Potential profit: $179.24
User PnL: -$100

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $154.59
Potential profit: $154.59
User PnL: -$125

Yes position

Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during conference with Putin on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.25
Potential profit: $147.25
User PnL: -$100

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.99
Potential profit: $136.99
User PnL: -$100

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.6
Potential profit: $26.6
User PnL: -$25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $719.16

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.05

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.18

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.52

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.57

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.25

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.35

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.92

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.21

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.64

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.78

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.98

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.11

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.23

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.53

No position

Stripe IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $4.73

Yes position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$12.9

Yes position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38.4%
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$26.68

No position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$44.11

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

No 97.7% 1,023.54 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Up 94% 26.6 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Down 30% 40.32 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Down 62% 40.32 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Down 80.6% 124.1 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Down 82% 30.49 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 78% 1,282.05 shares
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

No 97.6% 1,039.5 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

No 98.5% 1,138.71 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?

Yes 91% 219.78 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Yes 75.5% 397.52 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

No 92% 117.64 shares