No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $1.65K
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $65.07
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $5.19
Polymarket Trader
Sacred522
0x4fcd0f993bc357213e242c09f82559930f8bde5e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.99K
- Realized PnL
- $3.96K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.4%
- Current value
- $552.26
- Potential payout
- $639.19
- Potential profit
- $86.93
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $29.06
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $598.73
- Potential payout
- $609.7
- Potential profit
- $10.97
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $138.24
No position
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $595.28
- Potential payout
- $600.08
- Potential profit
- $4.8
- User PnL
- $43.21
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $483.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $16.25
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $22.67
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $492.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $7.25
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $34.75
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $394
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $6
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $32.8
No position
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $215.25
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $134.75
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $36.75
No position
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $9.98
- Potential payout
- $10.26
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $757.56
No position
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $412.82
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $411.95
No position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $286.31
Yes position
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.67
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.74
Yes position
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.5
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.48
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- $132
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.93
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.03
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.15
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.92
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.65
No position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.5
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $78.07
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.34
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.01
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.64
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.3
No position
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.11
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 99.9% 763.38 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 88.8% 528.33 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 67% 306.98 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 71% 10.4 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 67% 76.49 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?No 96.3% 471.79 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 86.7% 381.53 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 80.9% 150 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 83.4% 216 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 80% 427 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 150 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 202.35 shares