Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $169.32
- Potential payout
- $408
- Potential profit
- $238.68
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$120.36
Polymarket Trader
marketp
0x4fd8082eac8aed928f3c7dd203a09569123e0d38
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $969.3
- Realized PnL
- $3.89K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $200.79
- Potential payout
- $205.1
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $42.87
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $59
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $141
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$55
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $175
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $115.96
- Potential payout
- $117.55
- Potential profit
- $1.59
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $24.27
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $41.37
- Potential payout
- $78.8
- Potential profit
- $37.43
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$17.73
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $55.7
- Potential payout
- $59.1
- Potential profit
- $3.4
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $29.7
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $14.81
- Potential payout
- $47
- Potential profit
- $32.2
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $4.94
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44.4
- Potential profit
- $44.4
- User PnL
- -$13.29
No position
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $5.44
- Potential payout
- $32
- Potential profit
- $26.56
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$4.48
No position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $22.63
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $2.38
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $13.13
No position
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $22
- User PnL
- -$9.9
No position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $17.6
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $4.4
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $10.12
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $21.13
- Potential profit
- $6.13
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $8.09
No position
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $15.68
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $3.32
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $7.51
No position
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $11.07
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $6.93
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $2.43
No position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17
- Potential profit
- $17
- User PnL
- -$9.86
No position
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16
- Potential profit
- $16
- User PnL
- -$12.32
N
No position
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $8.92
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $6.08
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
No position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $13
- User PnL
- -$9.88
N
No position
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $11.28
- Potential payout
- $12.82
- Potential profit
- $1.54
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.28
N
No position
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $8.81
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $3.69
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $11.1
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $0.9
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.98
N
No position
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $9.81
- Potential payout
- $11.61
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $2.87
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $364
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.44
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $163.21
No position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.67
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.38
No position
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.87
Yes position
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.7
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130
No position
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.77
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.39
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.68
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.82
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.97
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $75.97
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.72
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.05
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.24
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.87
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.04
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.33
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.5
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 0.7% 20 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 0.3% 311.82 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 59% 92 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes 73% 115 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes 72% 85 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 75% 78.8 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 33% 19.96 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 8% 30 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 7.4% 30 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 16% 60 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 77% 20 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 22.5% 20 shares