Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $2.88
- Potential payout
- $104.83
- Potential profit
- $101.94
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Polymarket Trader
0x5041...619a
0x504130bf245a7d4ff2decf7f8997563f8a60619a
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $272.78
- Realized PnL
- $415.77
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $32.45
- Potential payout
- $84.3
- Potential profit
- $51.84
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$4.64
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $49.93
- Potential payout
- $77.42
- Potential profit
- $27.48
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $21.05
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $53.73
- Potential payout
- $53.81
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $4.05
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 11.1%
- Current value
- $5.83
- Potential payout
- $52.72
- Potential profit
- $46.89
- Multiplier
- 9.05x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $24.79
- Potential payout
- $32.84
- Potential profit
- $8.05
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $2.13
Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $24.83
- Potential profit
- $24.75
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.35
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.3%
- Current value
- $4.53
- Potential payout
- $23.53
- Potential profit
- $19
- Multiplier
- 5.19x
- User PnL
- $0.34
Yes position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $1.99
- Potential payout
- $22.13
- Potential profit
- $20.14
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$1.33
Yes position
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $0.66
- Potential payout
- $19.83
- Potential profit
- $19.17
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $15.38
- Potential payout
- $19.47
- Potential profit
- $4.09
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $14.16
- Potential payout
- $14.18
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.11
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $11.62
- Potential payout
- $13.59
- Potential profit
- $1.97
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $5.35
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $11.53
- Potential payout
- $13.33
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $10.8
- Potential payout
- $12.7
- Potential profit
- $1.91
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $7.43
- Potential profit
- $6.72
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $6.7
- Potential payout
- $6.79
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $4.16
- Potential payout
- $6.55
- Potential profit
- $2.39
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 90.7%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $5.46
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $1.25
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
No position
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $5.38
- Potential payout
- $5.4
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $5.1
- Potential profit
- $4.82
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$3.85
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $4.72
- Potential profit
- $3.04
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
No position
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $4.38
- Potential payout
- $4.71
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.08
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75
No position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.94
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.07
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.55
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.46
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.41
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.6
Yes position
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.25
No position
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.07
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.01
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.94
Matteo Arnaldi position
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $6.81
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $4.85
No position
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.5
No position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.38
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.43
No position
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.32
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 67% 2.49 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 67% 10.84 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 56% 1.59 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 56% 9.78 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 57% 4.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 49% 8.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 84.2% 0.3 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 84.2% 1.61 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 84.2% 1.06 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 84.2% 2.01 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 86.3% 6.47 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 86.6% 5.3 shares