No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $1.1K
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $41.56
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $29.75
Polymarket Trader
d78ak3v
0x504f444de5192576d10c1402a24eb4957b0e536a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.23K
- Realized PnL
- $523.09
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $666.44
- Potential payout
- $712.77
- Potential profit
- $46.33
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $15.44
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $404.58
- Potential payout
- $419.9
- Potential profit
- $15.33
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $4.55
No position
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $388.16
- Potential payout
- $419.64
- Potential profit
- $31.47
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $14.96
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $277.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $22.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $201.39
- Potential payout
- $213
- Potential profit
- $11.61
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.39
No position
Obama federally charged before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $195.32
- Potential payout
- $204.85
- Potential profit
- $9.53
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $6.93
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.32
No position
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.13
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.58
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.22
No position
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.59
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.09
No position
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.65
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.13
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 7PM ET
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.58
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.45
No position
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.35
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.32
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.52
No position
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.35
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 7PM ET
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.2
No position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.4
Yes position
Bolsonaro guilty?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.07
No position
Nancy Pelosi federally charged in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.92
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Obama federally charged before 2027?No 95.4% 104.85 shares
- Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?No 92% 108.7 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 95.3% 419.87 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No 93% 200 shares
- Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?No 92% 100 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 93% 200 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 95.8% 300 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 93% 537.63 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?No 99.1% 807.14 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?No 98.9% 505.56 shares
- State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?No 97.5% 205.17 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 93% 301.08 shares