Anonlegs

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $2.56K
Potential payout: $3.1K
Potential profit: $543.34
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$43.1

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $375.18
Potential payout: $610.05
Potential profit: $234.87
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$15.19

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $546.22
Potential payout: $547.04
Potential profit: $0.82
User PnL: $15.42

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $325.23
Potential payout: $333.4
Potential profit: $8.17
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $311.36
Potential payout: $320.83
Potential profit: $9.46
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $6.05

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $5.04
Potential payout: $198.37
Potential profit: $193.34
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$2.89

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $122.41
Potential payout: $123.28
Potential profit: $0.86
User PnL: $2.67

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 84.4%
Current value: $90.4
Potential payout: $107.1
Potential profit: $16.71
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $15.03

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $88.18
Potential payout: $90.21
Potential profit: $2.03
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.19

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.8%
Current value: $79.13
Potential payout: $88.17
Potential profit: $9.04
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $17.7

No position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $69.22
Potential payout: $73.75
Potential profit: $4.54
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$1.83

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $65.68
Potential payout: $71
Potential profit: $5.33
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $2.48

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $59.17
Potential profit: $51.92
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $57.06
Potential profit: $57.04
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$16.87

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $50.23
Potential payout: $50.31
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $1.84

No position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $45.3
Potential payout: $46.21
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $41.16
Potential payout: $43.67
Potential profit: $2.51
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.16

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $38.56
Potential payout: $38.69
Potential profit: $0.14
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $36.88
Potential payout: $36.92
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $4.02
Potential payout: $30.95
Potential profit: $26.93
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$7.87

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $23.32
Potential payout: $23.38
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $7.08
Potential payout: $20.53
Potential profit: $13.45
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$9.44

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $18.79
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$14.56

No position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $12.46
Potential payout: $12.47
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.46

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $513.79

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $448.35

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.88

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.85

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.42

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.85

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.26

Yes position

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.09

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.73

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.83

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.98

No position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.43

No position

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.86

No position

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.05

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: $17.55

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $15.08

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 2?

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.02

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.68

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.14

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.66

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.51

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?