Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.8
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $398.2
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Polymarket Trader
gis1on
0x5146161c7d97537f9758ddb1b2ad7b639ebe56e1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $37.39
- Realized PnL
- $53.7
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $111.11
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $77.46
- Potential profit
- $77.46
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $1.54
- Potential payout
- $76.92
- Potential profit
- $75.38
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.81
- Potential profit
- $68.81
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Stripe IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $2.32
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $33.39
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$2.68
No position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $4.83
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $28.5
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $3.01
- Potential payout
- $33.26
- Potential profit
- $30.25
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $3.64
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $10.64
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$1.36
Yes position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $13.04
- Potential profit
- $13.03
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.99
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $0.84
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $10.39
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $10.87
- Potential profit
- $5.92
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.5
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $1.44
- Potential payout
- $9.62
- Potential profit
- $8.17
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$3.56
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $5.96
- Potential payout
- $7.79
- Potential profit
- $1.83
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
No position
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $6.33
- Potential profit
- $1.36
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $3.45
- Potential profit
- $2.86
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Yes position
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $0.66
- Potential payout
- $3.23
- Potential profit
- $2.56
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
Yes position
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.7
- Potential profit
- $2.7
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $0.33
- Potential payout
- $2.17
- Potential profit
- $1.85
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Knicks position
Knicks vs. Spurs
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.51
Knicks position
Knicks vs. Spurs
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.82
Yes position
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $6.03
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2
Knicks position
Knicks vs. Spurs
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.89
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.02
No position
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 12?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Spurs position
Spurs vs. Thunder
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.88
Spurs position
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33
No position
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
ChatGPT Outage by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Multiplier
- 7.94x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Anthropic CEO arrested?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ETUp 7% 28.57 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ETDown 52% 4.76 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ETDown 42% 4.76 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETDown 1% 500 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETDown 50% 10 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETUp 43.9% 16.66 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETUp 30% 16.67 shares
- Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?Yes 46% 10.87 shares
- Will England win on 2026-07-01?Yes 77% 7.79 shares
- Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Yes 37% 2.7 shares
- Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes 2.9% 8.33 shares
- Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Yes 0.1% 6.25 shares