0x514a6DbE2F14d200B93f4d33dcF07892A560dAD1-1778594347465

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.9K
Potential profit: $4.9K
User PnL: -$100

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $566.59
Potential profit: $566.59
User PnL: -$200

No position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $34
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $466
Multiplier: 14.71x
User PnL: -$16

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $453.83
Potential profit: $453.83
User PnL: -$11.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $416.9
Potential profit: $416.9
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $16.84
Potential payout: $340.13
Potential profit: $323.29
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: -$33.16

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $29.69
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $282.81
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$20.31

No position

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $42.18
Potential payout: $312.48
Potential profit: $270.29
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$7.81

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $267.92
Potential profit: $267.92
User PnL: -$100

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $145.83
Potential profit: $145.83
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $144.5
Potential profit: $144.5
User PnL: -$20.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$20

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $116.43
Potential payout: $131.56
Potential profit: $15.13
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $16.44

No position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $10.61
Potential payout: $124.8
Potential profit: $114.19
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.87

No position

Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $104.18
Potential payout: $119.06
Potential profit: $14.88
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $4.18

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$3.4

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $51.58
Potential payout: $63.29
Potential profit: $11.71
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $49.69
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $12.81
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.31

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $48.87
Potential payout: $56.17
Potential profit: $7.3
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$1.12

No position

Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $46.38
Potential payout: $55.55
Potential profit: $9.17
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$3.61

No position

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.8%
Current value: $48.33
Potential payout: $54.46
Potential profit: $6.13
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$1.66

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $50.26
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $2.37
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 81.2%
Current value: $40.23
Potential payout: $49.55
Potential profit: $9.32
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $24.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.78
Potential profit: $48.78
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $308.91

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.68

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET