maybejohndoe

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $1.61K
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $36.1
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $46.58

Yes position

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.61
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$8.39

Yes position

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.92
Potential payout: $833.33
Potential profit: $830.42
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $33.37
Potential payout: $623.74
Potential profit: $590.37
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$38.64

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $13.49
Potential payout: $442.28
Potential profit: $428.79
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $3.49

Yes position

Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $392.76
Potential profit: $390.21
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $41.59
Potential payout: $373
Potential profit: $331.41
Multiplier: 8.97x
User PnL: -$19.68

Yes position

Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $299.11
Potential profit: $298.96
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.85

Yes position

Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $4.64
Potential payout: $238.1
Potential profit: $233.46
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$45.36

Yes position

Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.93
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $141.93
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.06
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.06
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $9.33
Potential payout: $93.78
Potential profit: $84.45
Multiplier: 10.05x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $6.54
Potential payout: $92.85
Potential profit: $86.31
Multiplier: 14.20x
User PnL: -$1.04

Yes position

Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $71.44
Potential profit: $71.19
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $18.01
Potential payout: $46.17
Potential profit: $28.16
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: $10.62

Yes position

Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $45.64
Potential profit: $45.43
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$2.21

Yes position

Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $39.06
Potential profit: $38.93
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.86

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.61
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $2.42
Potential payout: $16.71
Potential profit: $14.29
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $9.57
Potential payout: $16.64
Potential profit: $7.07
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Nike say "Retailer" during earnings call?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $15.87
Potential payout: $15.95
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $14.8
Potential payout: $15.64
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.9

Over position

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $4.12
Potential payout: $6.1
Potential profit: $1.98
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$0.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?

Ends Sep 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.71K

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 11AM ET

Ends Jul 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55K

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52K

Marlins position

Padres vs. Marlins

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2K

Nationals position

Reds vs. Nationals

Ends Jul 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Astros position

Astros vs. Diamondbacks

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $879.51

Pirates position

Tigers vs. Pirates

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $739.77

Orioles position

Orioles vs. Guardians

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $682.41

Georgia Tech position

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

Ends Sep 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $576.06

Hornets position

Kings vs. Hornets

Ends Jul 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $508.44

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $488.24

Guardians position

Orioles vs. Guardians

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $449.31

No position

Cardano ETF in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $441.8

Reds position

Reds vs. Nationals

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $409.45

Royals position

Royals vs. Cubs

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $367.33

Marlins position

Padres vs. Marlins

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333.33

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 1PM ET

Ends Jul 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $319.11

Dodgers position

Padres vs. Dodgers

Ends Aug 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $254.24

Cubs position

Brewers vs. Cubs

Ends Aug 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250

Tigers position

Tigers vs. Rangers

Ends Jul 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $213.27

Cardinals position

Cardinals vs. Rockies

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.28

Pirates position

Tigers vs. Pirates

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.24

Rockies position

Cardinals vs. Rockies