No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $123.94
- Potential payout
- $263.7
- Potential profit
- $139.76
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $53.94
Polymarket Trader
0x5253cb7aD1FC59f1cD9fBE36b75663ed9DBfFdbB-1769347312162
0x5253cb7ad1fc59f1cd9fbe36b75663ed9dbffdbb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $174.47
- Realized PnL
- $220.76
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $50.53
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $2.11
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $20.53
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 9?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.75
- Potential profit
- $8.75
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 10?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $7.14
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 10?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.98
- Potential profit
- $6.98
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.25
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.85
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.88
No position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.37
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 5?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 17?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.56
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 2?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 35°F or below on February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 2?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 4?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 5?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 19°F or below on February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 2?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 6?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 53°F or below on February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 57% 52.63 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 26.5% 263.7 shares
- Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?No 86% 159.5 shares
- Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?No 64.4% 159.51 shares
- GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?No 31% 331.59 shares
- GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?No 59% 331.59 shares
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?No 34.7% 216.91 shares
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?No 14% 7.14 shares
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?No 46.1% 216.92 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No 71.3% 208.91 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No 52.7% 208.91 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?No 56% 285.71 shares