Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $531.12
- Potential payout
- $11.3K
- Potential profit
- $10.77K
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- -$709.72
Polymarket Trader
merz1305
@myaicompany
0x52ebca459280966f4a56240a05e38df8527067ac
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.07K
- Realized PnL
- $17.43K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $35
- Potential payout
- $8.75K
- Potential profit
- $8.71K
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$255.01
Yes position
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $124.86
- Potential payout
- $6.4K
- Potential profit
- $6.28K
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$85.13
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $9
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.99K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$115.88
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $44.67
- Potential payout
- $3.88K
- Potential profit
- $3.84K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$104.7
Yes position
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $29.75
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $3.47K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$87.69
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $8.51
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $3.39K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$131.74
Yes position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $181.5
- Potential payout
- $3.36K
- Potential profit
- $3.18K
- Multiplier
- 18.52x
- User PnL
- -$166.56
Yes position
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $67.84
- Potential payout
- $3.23K
- Potential profit
- $3.16K
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$187.77
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $43.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.96K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$97.07
Yes position
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $32.99
- Potential payout
- $2.87K
- Potential profit
- $2.84K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$164.4
Yes position
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $51.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.45K
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$24.94
Yes position
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $86.79
- Potential payout
- $2.45K
- Potential profit
- $2.36K
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- -$34.7
Yes position
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $67.2
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $2.33K
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- -$111.29
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $11.25
- Potential payout
- $2.25K
- Potential profit
- $2.24K
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$50.85
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.1%
- Current value
- $381.02
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- Multiplier
- 5.87x
- User PnL
- -$103.32
Yes position
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $35.7
- Potential payout
- $2.16K
- Potential profit
- $2.13K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$9.26
Yes position
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Ends Nov 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $67.5
- Potential payout
- $2.14K
- Potential profit
- $2.08K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$11.78
Yes position
Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Ends Dec 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $53.19
- Potential payout
- $2.09K
- Potential profit
- $2.04K
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$79.16
Yes position
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $81.99
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $15.12
Yes position
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $64
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.94K
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- $14.01
Yes position
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $23
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.98K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$26.94
Yes position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $41.5
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $1.9K
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$12.63
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.96
- Potential payout
- $1.93K
- Potential profit
- $1.93K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$20.46
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.55K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06K
No position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $754.03
Yes position
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $716.03
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $691.36
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $559.61
Yes position
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $493.88
Yes position
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $430
Yes position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $334.95
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $330
Yes position
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $316.5
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $302.15
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $289.78
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $273.19
No position
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
Ends Jul 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.47
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $250.96
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $246.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.25
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $236.01
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Multiplier
- 40.00x
- User PnL
- $217.89
Yes position
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.97
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?No 45.7% 165 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18?No 83.5% 51 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18?No 62.1% 96 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18?No 79.2% 176 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?No 57% 101 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18?No 62% 7 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19?No 64% 33.33 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19?No 75% 27 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19?No 71.1% 96 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18?No 78% 46 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18?No 71.2% 46 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?No 66.2% 126 shares