Polymarket Trader

0x53a9...d43e

0x53a969c840ed820764d54d70dde6486421e7d43e

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $392.25
Realized PnL: $559.36
Win rate: 62.5%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $4.98
Potential payout: $712.01
Potential profit: $707.03
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$14.05

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $3.52
Potential payout: $370.35
Potential profit: $366.83
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$22.95

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $173
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $27
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$7

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $94.28
Potential payout: $96.84
Potential profit: $2.57
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.28

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $6.37
Potential payout: $38.64
Potential profit: $32.26
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $2.12

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 88.9%
Current value: $33.52
Potential payout: $37.7
Potential profit: $4.18
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $3.66

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.6%
Current value: $34.15
Potential payout: $36.5
Potential profit: $2.35
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $8.18
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $6.82
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $13.92
Potential profit: $3.97
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $6.46
Potential payout: $8.91
Potential profit: $2.45
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.27
Potential payout: $8.27
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $3.09

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $6.74
Potential profit: $2.36
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $1.78
Potential payout: $5.85
Potential profit: $4.06
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $3.41
Potential payout: $4.04
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $318.25

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.3

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.78

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.05

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.64

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $13.38

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.08

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.04

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: -$1.08

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.16

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.33

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$4.38

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13

No position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13.29

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$19.25

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Yes 79.2% 37.7 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 64% 8.91 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Yes 32.5% 21.41 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Yes 29% 13.42 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 92% 50 shares
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Yes 13% 27.63 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 53% 68.16 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 64% 15.73 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 64% 17.95 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 55% 7.8 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 55.2% 8.11 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 58% 95.72 shares