Polymarket Trader

Arbguy

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $543.97K
Realized PnL: $1.89M
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $12.13K
Potential payout: $1.62M
Potential profit: $1.6M
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $1.39K

Yes position

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $14.73K
Potential payout: $892.95K
Potential profit: $878.21K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $2.79K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2.45K
Potential payout: $445.69K
Potential profit: $443.24K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$48.95K

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $56.53K
Potential payout: $350K
Potential profit: $293.48K
Multiplier: 6.19x
User PnL: -$118.48K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 83.9%
Current value: $293.48K
Potential payout: $350K
Potential profit: $56.53K
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $118.48K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.78K
Potential profit: $129.78K
User PnL: -$15.44K

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $12.37K
Potential payout: $100.2K
Potential profit: $87.83K
Multiplier: 8.10x
User PnL: $551.1

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $56.54K
Potential payout: $58.05K
Potential profit: $1.51K
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4.84K

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $31.9K
Potential payout: $57.49K
Potential profit: $25.58K
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $4.2K

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $2.65K
Potential payout: $37.91K
Potential profit: $35.26K
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$15.24K

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $297.5
Potential payout: $35K
Potential profit: $34.7K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$8.45K

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $12.44K
Potential payout: $24.39K
Potential profit: $11.95K
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$3.62K

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18.6%
Current value: $4.08K
Potential payout: $22K
Potential profit: $17.92K
Multiplier: 5.39x
User PnL: -$737

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $745.11
Potential payout: $21.29K
Potential profit: $20.54K
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$3.51K

No position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $6.32K
Potential payout: $17.79K
Potential profit: $11.47K
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $266.84

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $10.87K
Potential payout: $13.18K
Potential profit: $2.31K
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $65.9

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $7.36K
Potential payout: $12.8K
Potential profit: $5.44K
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $990.11

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $711.07
Potential payout: $12.16K
Potential profit: $11.44K
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$368.31

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $9.61K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $390
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $310

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $4.01K
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $495.1
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$45.01

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $1.84K
Potential payout: $3.31K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $47.77

Yes position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $714.1
Potential payout: $2.69K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$523.18

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $2.19K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $312.62
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $112.54

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $15.82
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$25.82

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $448.89K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.6K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.81K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.93K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.3K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.09K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.21K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $69.06K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.91K

Yes position

Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.87K

No position

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.98K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.1K

No position

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.47K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.01K

No position

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.16K

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.85K

Yes position

US government shutdown by October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.11K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.58K

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.31K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.8K

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.52K

Braves position

Braves vs. Tigers

Ends Sep 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.25K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.96K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.91K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 35.8% 16,996.29 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 93% 2,830.52 shares
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

No 34% 17,789.65 shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

No 82% 1,658.39 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 83.5% 3,233.34 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 87.9% 5,237.48 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 86.3% 11,041.59 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 80.6% 12,988.35 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Yes 99.5% 25,268.68 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 18.7% 38,066.94 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 18.5% 23,971.07 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 9.1% 45,025.57 shares