No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $6.52K
- Potential payout
- $7.37K
- Potential profit
- $847.32
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $285.19
Polymarket Trader
Sebastian101
0x54084e271e963fba0db3700322dce3e37f570466
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $11.47K
- Realized PnL
- $577.12
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.56K
- Potential profit
- $4.56K
- User PnL
- -$4.37K
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $3.5K
- Potential payout
- $3.51K
- Potential profit
- $5.26
- User PnL
- $67.62
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.08K
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $62.69
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $82.3
No position
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $368.69
- Potential payout
- $370.54
- Potential profit
- $1.85
- User PnL
- $27.79
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.11
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.69
Yes position
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.2
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.6
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $12.72
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $11
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.79
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36
No position
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Yes position
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Netanyahu out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 80.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.3%
- Multiplier
- 5.18x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No 89% 1,668 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?No 99.7% 1,486.15 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?No 99.5% 14.02 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?No 91.7% 105 shares
- Netanyahu out by May 31?No 99.7% 100 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?No 91.7% 28 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?No 91.8% 300 shares
- Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No 0.5% 100 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?No 97.9% 670.45 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?No 97.4% 100 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No 95.8% 2,263.14 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?No 99.1% 835.93 shares