0x542120De39859E9931DaaFf30967Fd37E7E5449C-1755878695722

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $514.26
Potential payout: $699.68
Potential profit: $185.42
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $16.28

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $41
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $159
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $125.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $24.75
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $67.79
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $52.21
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$19.81

Yes position

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $95.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $4.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $8.09

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$16.91

Yes position

Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?

Ends Nov 7, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $55
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $15

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $96.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $3.15
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Ends Dec 31, 2028

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $13.48
Potential payout: $99.86
Potential profit: $86.38
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$6.49

Yes position

Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Ends Dec 31, 2028

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $7.45
Potential payout: $87.69
Potential profit: $80.24
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $2.19

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $28.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $21.25
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $12.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $37.75
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $5.75

No position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $29.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $20.5
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.12
Potential profit: $48.12
User PnL: -$2.79

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $1.16
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.84
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: -$30.84

Yes position

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $15
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$5

No position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.3%
Current value: $27.08
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.57

No position

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $24.9
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $5.1
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $26.85
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $3.15
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $4.35

Yes position

Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?

Ends Oct 3, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $3.45
Potential payout: $27.61
Potential profit: $24.16
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$6.21

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $15.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $4.8
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $4.6

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $5.65
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.35
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $2.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.85
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$1.35

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $5.8
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $0.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $958.41

Yes position

Will Ciucu win by at least 12%?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $441.93

No position

Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.04

Yes position

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.02

Yes position

Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.35

Yes position

Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37

Yes position

Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.5

Yes position

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.46

Yes position

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28

Yes position

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.99

Yes position

Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.43

Yes position

Starostové (STAN) wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?

Ends Oct 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.6

Yes position

Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.73

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.32

No position

Will Ciucu win by 6-9%?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Yes position

Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.82

Yes position

Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.6

Red position

Which Bloc Wins most seats in Norway election?

Ends Sep 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.04

No position

Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.73

Yes position

Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.6

Yes position

Will Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.5

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?