Polymarket Trader

Blind Chicken

0x542aae10712e812bd71d792861ec5a570aa8a81b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.73K
Realized PnL: $102.72K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $650.98K
Potential profit: $650.98K
User PnL: -$932.85

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $583.32K
Potential profit: $583.32K
User PnL: -$1.57K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500.76K
Potential profit: $500.76K
User PnL: -$737.62

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $375.91K
Potential profit: $375.91K
User PnL: -$707.08

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200.04K
Potential profit: $200.04K
User PnL: -$491.09

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $4.11K
Potential payout: $167.59K
Potential profit: $163.49K
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$822.21

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $2.89K
Potential payout: $148.36K
Potential profit: $145.47K
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$26.26

Yes position

Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $100K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.8K
Potential profit: $98.8K
User PnL: -$398.08

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.45K
Potential profit: $91.45K
User PnL: -$165.9

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $25.27
Potential payout: $50.53K
Potential profit: $50.51K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$127.95

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $50K
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.25K
Potential profit: $48.25K
User PnL: -$718.43

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.28K
Potential profit: $45.28K
User PnL: -$443.25

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $45.01K
Potential profit: $43.99K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$461.28

Yes position

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.33K
Potential profit: $43.33K
User PnL: -$106.84

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.09K
Potential profit: $41.09K
User PnL: -$604.35

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.88K
Potential profit: $14.88K
User PnL: -$74.41

Yes position

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14K
Potential profit: $14K
User PnL: -$486.88

Yes position

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $12K
User PnL: -$625.01

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $3.44
Potential payout: $6.88K
Potential profit: $6.88K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.44

Yes position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $689.31
Potential payout: $6.15K
Potential profit: $5.47K
Multiplier: 8.93x
User PnL: -$236.11

No position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.17K
Potential profit: $5.17K
User PnL: -$65.39

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will there be a US Government shutdown?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.6K

Yes position

Will the United States report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?

Ends Jan 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.78K

No position

Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11K

Yes position

Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.85K

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.48K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.85K

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.78K

Yes position

Will at least 95% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022?

Ends Jan 4, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.21K

Yes position

US government shutdown by Mar 9?

Ends Mar 9, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09K

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34K

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.2%
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $2.93K

No position

Will at least 80% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022?

Ends Jan 4, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 8938925.74x
User PnL: $2.11K

No position

Will at least 95% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022?

Ends Jan 4, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 12188738.19x
User PnL: $2.06K

No position

Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?

Ends Apr 1, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.99K

No position

Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2?

Ends Oct 2, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.79K

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday?

Ends Oct 20, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63K

Yes position

Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?

Ends Mar 31, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.59K

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?

Ends May 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57K

No position

Will 'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' movie gross over $100m opening weekend?

Ends Oct 16, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

No position

Will there be a US Government shutdown?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.46K

No position

Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater?

Ends Apr 4, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Will President Biden say “folks” in his first Joint Address?

Ends Apr 28, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Will there be a US government shutdown by Mar 23?

Ends Mar 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Yes 17.1% 360.2 shares
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Yes 46% 52.54 shares
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 2.4% 5,167.9 shares
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 1% 100,396.2 shares
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 2.3% 4,446.23 shares
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Yes 50% 167.07 shares
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

No 52.3% 1,061.27 shares
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Yes 11.7% 1,219.18 shares
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Yes 9.2% 335.94 shares
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 1.5% 48,249 shares
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Yes 0.1% 139.31 shares
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 1.1% 763 shares