Polymarket Trader

0x545a4635701752b12c44F4dd35e7955260FE32c3-1771535740431

0x545a4635701752b12c44f4dd35e7955260fe32c3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $466.88
Realized PnL: $161.87
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $86.05
Potential payout: $4.41K
Potential profit: $4.33K
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$23.95

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $128.01
Potential payout: $146.3
Potential profit: $18.29
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $20.38

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $145.5
Potential profit: $145.5
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $10.56
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $100.56
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.67
Potential profit: $86.67
User PnL: -$5.2

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $65.11
Potential payout: $80.89
Potential profit: $15.77
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$4.89

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.82
Potential profit: $62.82
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $51.39
Potential payout: $61.91
Potential profit: $10.53
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $1.39

Yes position

Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $40
Potential payout: $53.33
Potential profit: $13.33
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $9.43
Potential payout: $45.25
Potential profit: $35.81
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $7.96
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $30.5
Multiplier: 4.83x
User PnL: -$2.04

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $13.3
Potential payout: $34.09
Potential profit: $20.8
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.77
Potential profit: $30.77
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $17.5
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $19.8
Potential payout: $21.53
Potential profit: $1.73
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $20.83
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $18.95
Potential payout: $20.12
Potential profit: $1.18
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $3.3
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $15.57
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$6.7

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $5.53
Potential payout: $18.42
Potential profit: $12.89
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: -$8.47

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $17.24
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

No position

Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $12.82
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $12.82
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.62

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.52

No position

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.77

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.07

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.36

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.88

Yes position

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $3.91

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $2.31

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $1.79

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

Will "Trump" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 8)

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Enemy" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

Will Norway win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 37% 27.03 shares
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals

Yes 18% 27.78 shares
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals

Yes 19% 26.32 shares
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score

Yes 59% 16.95 shares
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?

Yes 13% 7.69 shares
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?

Yes 13% 7.69 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 83% 24.1 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 99.9% 22.38 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 92.9% 21.53 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 66% 7.57 shares
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

No 94.2% 32.81 shares
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?

Yes 22% 4.55 shares