No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $19.78
- Potential payout
- $23.13
- Potential profit
- $3.35
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $3.78
Polymarket Trader
doofusthefirst
0x5486b8ae72bee876d9aa20e8a9178ec975c5970c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $74.09
- Realized PnL
- $38.55
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $16.45
- Potential payout
- $18.07
- Potential profit
- $1.63
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.45
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $2.21
- Potential payout
- $18.07
- Potential profit
- $15.86
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $2.04
- Potential payout
- $12.38
- Potential profit
- $10.34
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$2.96
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $4.01
- Potential payout
- $9.43
- Potential profit
- $5.42
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $7.26
- Potential payout
- $9.37
- Potential profit
- $2.11
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.82
- Potential profit
- $6.82
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $4.94
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $0.94
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $4.37
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Yes position
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $3.23
- Potential payout
- $5.17
- Potential profit
- $1.94
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $4
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $3.27
- Potential payout
- $3.66
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $2.85
- Potential payout
- $2.86
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.85
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $2.37
- Potential payout
- $2.72
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $2.59
- Potential payout
- $2.6
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $1.96
- Potential payout
- $2.47
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.71
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.48
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.03
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.99
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.77
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.36
Up position
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?No 99.7% 3.14 shares
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?No 94% 6.41 shares
- Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?No 44% 6.82 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 67% 2.99 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 75% 4 shares
- Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?No 75.4% 9.37 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 96.3% 7.04 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ETUp 9% 2.33 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ETUp 41% 2.23 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ETDown 63% 1.21 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ETDown 81% 1.2 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETUp 80% 1.32 shares