Polymarket Trader

Quirinus

0x54949d936aedd7732f895d20c78581e56df1faac

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.03K
Realized PnL: $26.19K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.55K
Potential profit: $4.55K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $785.85
Potential payout: $4.49K
Potential profit: $3.7K
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$714.15

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $244.23
Potential payout: $3.85K
Potential profit: $3.6K
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: $44.23

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $1.45K
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $1.88K
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$553.35

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.83K
Potential profit: $2.83K
User PnL: -$2.6K

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $356.47
Potential payout: $2.46K
Potential profit: $2.1K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$143.53

No position

James Comey arrested by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $2.31K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.97K
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $255.56
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$33.33

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $222.12
Potential payout: $1.77K
Potential profit: $1.55K
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $22.13

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $554.69
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $7.81

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.56K
User PnL: -$1K

No position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $1.34K
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $62.96
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $636.17

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $114.86
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.24K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$385.13

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $1.29K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $34.69
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.08K
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$465.31

No position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $350.56
Potential payout: $796.73
Potential profit: $446.17
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$149.44

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $547.6
Potential profit: $547.6
User PnL: -$153.33

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $17.73
Potential payout: $454.55
Potential profit: $436.82
Multiplier: 25.64x
User PnL: -$82.27

Yes position

Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $150.57
Potential payout: $418.26
Potential profit: $267.69
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$49.42

No position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $303.03
Potential profit: $303.03
User PnL: -$100

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.91K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.69K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.28K

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.56K

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25K

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03K

Yes position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $961.9

Yes position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $870.69

Yes position

Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $594.19

Yes position

Cerebras IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465.03

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $347.46

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $277.89

Yes position

Trump nominates Tulsi Gabbard to Cabinet?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.45

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.21

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $231.44

Yes position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $229.63

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 13?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.58

Yes position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.87

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.49

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.67

No position

Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.21

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.53

Yes position

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $41.62

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 61% 819.67 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 90% 2,222.22 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 64% 1,562.5 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 92% 2,173.91 shares
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.1% 251.73 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 57% 877.19 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 91% 659.34 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 93.8% 1,066.1 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 63.3% 631.44 shares
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 47.8% 418.26 shares
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 79.4% 251.74 shares
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 78.5% 318.49 shares