No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $7.08K
- Potential payout
- $7.43K
- Potential profit
- $352.94
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $135.17
Polymarket Trader
Laurenman
0x54a78f8c6e64572111c5683a9efeed25a04c881b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $48.13K
- Realized PnL
- $34.32K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $6.86K
- Potential payout
- $6.96K
- Potential profit
- $93.9
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $20.56
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.7%
- Current value
- $5.71K
- Potential payout
- $6.51K
- Potential profit
- $804.13
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$53.91
$60 position
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.1%
- Current value
- $4.2K
- Potential payout
- $4.94K
- Potential profit
- $738.02
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$425.01
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $4.06K
- Potential payout
- $4.42K
- Potential profit
- $353.29
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $231.01
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $4.09K
- Potential payout
- $4.16K
- Potential profit
- $77.02
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $45.68
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $3.52K
- Potential payout
- $3.54K
- Potential profit
- $23.02
- User PnL
- $38.02
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.81K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $190
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $1.96K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $42
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $1.96K
- Potential profit
- $382.28
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$29.41
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- User PnL
- -$1.23K
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- User PnL
- -$849.38
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.7%
- Current value
- $1.25K
- Potential payout
- $1.57K
- Potential profit
- $320.13
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$1.2K
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$812.4
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$940.5
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $127.08
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $246.68
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $1.22K
- Potential payout
- $1.23K
- Potential profit
- $10.46
- User PnL
- $51.09
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: June
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $72.78
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $82.25
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- User PnL
- -$1.12K
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 45%
- Current value
- $515.69
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $630.29
- Multiplier
- 2.22x
- User PnL
- -$251.03
No position
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$425.9
No position
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $889.69
- Potential payout
- $972.34
- Potential profit
- $82.65
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$4.14
Y
Yes position
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?
Ends Sep 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.2%
- Current value
- $882.82
- Potential payout
- $957.51
- Potential profit
- $74.69
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $64.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Solana reach $260 September 15-21?
Ends Sep 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87K
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66K
No position
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59K
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87K
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
No position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
Ends Aug 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $999.7
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $983.02
No position
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $981.48
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $967.34
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $965.54
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $957.63
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $934.96
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $923.27
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $918.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?No 82.4% 1,189.39 shares
- Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?Yes 87% 20 shares
- Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?Yes 86% 401.19 shares
- Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?Yes 85.1% 536.32 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 96% 6.22 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 79% 400 shares
- Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?No 96% 403.55 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 79% 4,717 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?Yes 86% 961 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No 99.8% 446.18 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 71% 230.8 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 87% 2,231.99 shares