Polymarket Trader

Thomsd32

0x54da8d2f60dbcb85548f2eef33884bc3fe4f859b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $148.84
Realized PnL: $687.84
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.5

Clippers position

Clippers vs. Pelicans

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$230

Heat position

Heat vs. 76ers

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$220

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $102.01
Potential payout: $108.81
Potential profit: $6.8
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $2.01

No position

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $10.15
Potential payout: $10.44
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $10.02
Potential payout: $10.08
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: $0.02

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $9.84
Potential payout: $10.04
Potential profit: $0.2
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $6.71
Potential payout: $7.17
Potential profit: $0.47
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.71

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $6.12
Potential payout: $6.24
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.44
Potential profit: $2.44
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.42
Potential profit: $2.42
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.51
Potential profit: $1.51
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.29
Potential profit: $1.29
User PnL: -$0.98

New York Liberty position

PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.27
Potential profit: $1.27
User PnL: -$1

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $1.25
Potential profit: $0.59
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$0.34

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 65.7%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $1.22
Potential profit: $0.42
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: -$0.2

Celtics position

76ers vs. Celtics

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.21
Potential profit: $1.21
User PnL: -$0.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14
Potential profit: $1.14
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.07
Potential profit: $0.04
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Jazz position

Warriors vs. Jazz

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $552

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Raptors

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24

No position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

InControl position

Counter-Strike: InControl vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Cavaliers position

76ers vs. Cavaliers

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

No 80% 1.25 shares
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

No 61% 1.64 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?

No 84% 1.19 shares
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty

New York Liberty 79% 1.27 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

Down 41% 2.44 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 82.1% 1.22 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Down 88% 1.14 shares
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

No 82.5% 2.42 shares
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21?

Down 59% 172.47 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

No 98.2% 2.04 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Up 70% 1.43 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 67% 1.49 shares