yohe

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $2.79
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $80.54
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$2.21

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $6.01
Potential payout: $70.75
Potential profit: $64.74
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$6.99

Yes position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.79
Potential profit: $65.79
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $48.98
Potential profit: $48.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$11.98

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $3.83
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $29.5
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.3
Potential profit: $28.3
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $11.53
Potential payout: $22.39
Potential profit: $10.86
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $11.14
Potential payout: $18.42
Potential profit: $7.27
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $2.14

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $6.92
Potential payout: $16.28
Potential profit: $9.36
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $6.39
Potential payout: $12.07
Potential profit: $5.67
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $0.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.78
Potential profit: $11.78
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $2.21
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $4.93
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $0.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $6.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $4.98
Potential payout: $5.96
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.98

No position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $2.98
Potential payout: $4.08
Potential profit: $1.1
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $3.51
Potential payout: $3.75
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $0.99
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.31

No position

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Ends Oct 24, 2027

Implied probability: 49%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $1.82
Potential profit: $0.93
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: -$0.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will no leader be out in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.46

No position

Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.63

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.39

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.87

Yes position

Will the Labour Party (Ap) win 27% or more of vote in Norwegian election?

Ends Sep 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.71

No position

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.89

No position

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.09

Yes position

Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.02

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.96

Yes position

Will Do Kwon be sentenced to 12+ years in prison?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71

Yes position

French election called by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.05

No position

Grokipedia released by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.13

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

Yes position

S&P 500 all time high by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Yes position

Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.93

No position

Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

No position

Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?