Yes position
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $250
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $46.88
Polymarket Trader
T855
0x55e2698ee0f78046c91668af9bccf4dda6410d8f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.3K
- Realized PnL
- $759.35
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $212.67
- Potential profit
- $212.57
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$23.22
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $145.35
- Potential payout
- $170
- Potential profit
- $24.65
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $25.87
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $124.36
- Potential payout
- $126.06
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $41.16
$60k position
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$21.05
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $118.78
- Potential payout
- $118.96
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- User PnL
- $34.48
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $103.28
- Potential payout
- $107.64
- Potential profit
- $4.36
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.28
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$32
No position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$88
Yes position
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $89
- Potential payout
- $89
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $18.42
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.21
- Potential profit
- $84.21
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $63.35
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $6.65
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $5.55
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $63.49
- Potential profit
- $63.49
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $26.95
- Potential payout
- $50.85
- Potential profit
- $23.9
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$3.05
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $46.23
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $3.77
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.23
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $49.87
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- User PnL
- $11.42
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $40.7
- Potential payout
- $46.51
- Potential profit
- $5.81
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $37.84
- Potential payout
- $44.78
- Potential profit
- $6.94
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $7.84
Yes position
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $42.23
- Potential payout
- $42.23
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $12.23
No position
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $34.2
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $5.8
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $11.8
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $39.78
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- User PnL
- $6.98
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $19.4
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $20.6
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$7.4
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $38.1
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $1.9
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $4.23
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $28.05
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $1.95
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $4.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.57
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.54
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.59
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52
No position
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.19
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.14
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.2
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.95
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.3
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.93
No position
Grok 4.20 released by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.46
No position
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.1
70k position
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23
Yes position
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.8
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.18
Yes position
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22
No position
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22
No position
Will Artemis II launch by February 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.99
No position
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.71
No position
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.47
No position
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.7
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.4
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.14
No position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Yes 24.6% 111.11 shares
- Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Yes 59% 50.85 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 86% 46.51 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No 92.9% 107.64 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?Yes 1.5% 1,039.98 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No 67% 44.78 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?No 5.9% 84.21 shares
- Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Yes 71% 42.23 shares
- Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Yes 45% 111.11 shares
- Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?No 55% 14.08 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 66% 20 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 70% 20 shares