geowatch

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $7.77K
Potential payout: $7.8K
Potential profit: $35.11
User PnL: $376.25

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $3.18K
Potential payout: $3.19K
Potential profit: $14.36
User PnL: $177.13

No position

Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $1.13K
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $9.66
User PnL: $126.71

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $0.52
User PnL: $45.82

Yes position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $549.45
Potential profit: $549.45
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $316
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $84
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $16

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $228.67
Potential payout: $240.96
Potential profit: $12.29
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $28.67

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $208.94
Potential payout: $212.77
Potential profit: $3.83
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $8.94

Yes position

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.54
Potential profit: $208.54
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190.33
Potential profit: $190.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $12.27
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $169.55
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: $2.27

No position

Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $170.49
Potential profit: $170.49
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.87
Potential profit: $147.87
User PnL: -$60

No position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $100.71
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $42.14
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $0.71

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $121.66
Potential payout: $137.47
Potential profit: $15.81
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $21.66

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $126.27
Potential payout: $126.58
Potential profit: $0.32
User PnL: $26.27

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $123.46
Potential profit: $123.46
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.9%
Current value: $109.21
Potential payout: $118.9
Potential profit: $9.69
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $9.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $114.89
Potential profit: $114.89
User PnL: -$3

No position

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $108.35
Potential payout: $113.64
Potential profit: $5.28
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $8.35

Yes position

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $92.7
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $19.66
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$7.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $406.46

No position

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $350.64

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $347.19

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.1

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $269.88

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.29

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.84

No position

Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.49

No position

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $159.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 14?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.46

No position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.3

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.19

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.3

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.08

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.25

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.05

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by March 7?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.29

Yes position

Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.69

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $59.29

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.03

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?