molodoyy

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $143.37
Potential payout: $6.23K
Potential profit: $6.09K
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$100.92

No position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.26K
Potential profit: $4.26K
User PnL: -$58.08

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $146.81
Potential payout: $3.26K
Potential profit: $3.12K
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$208.24

No position

Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$18

No position

Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.95K
Potential profit: $1.95K
User PnL: -$875.04

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $58.46
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $1.83K
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: $45.2

No position

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $831.31
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $722.54
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $221.14

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $24.36
Potential payout: $1.52K
Potential profit: $1.5K
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$45.16

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $18.39
Potential payout: $1.41K
Potential profit: $1.4K
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: $13.05

Yes position

Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $7.72
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $1.28K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$10.42

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $11.97
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $7.02

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $156.79
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$50.64

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $7.06
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$21.25

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $163.68
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $961.27
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $104.28

No position

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $842.49
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $178.71
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $142.46

Yes position

Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$28.7

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $94.92
Potential payout: $949.19
Potential profit: $854.27
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: $23.46

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $26.14
Potential payout: $746.92
Potential profit: $720.78
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$79.96

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $504.7
Potential payout: $742.21
Potential profit: $237.51
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $105.71

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$74

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 71.7%
Current value: $410.79
Potential payout: $572.92
Potential profit: $162.14
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: -$20.19

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $14.23
Potential payout: $527
Potential profit: $512.77
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: -$83.47

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $10.58
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $439.43
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$8.02

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $9.36
Potential payout: $416.05
Potential profit: $406.69
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.98

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in Play Store on December 19?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $927.04

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $887.31

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $497.93

Yes position

Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $472.32

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $470.22

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $428.35

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $411.59

Yes position

Will "Melania" score at least 10 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.24

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $388.65

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $386.5

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $363.48

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $342.17

Yes position

Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $338.63

No position

Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333.99

No position

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.89

Yes position

Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $328.37

Yes position

Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $311.76

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $303.63

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second-best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $290.75

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $276.88

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?