Yes position
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $100.93
- Potential payout
- $25.23K
- Potential profit
- $25.13K
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$157.28
Polymarket Trader
0x56546De2C867C2B40FDb138cd20f8dE4b4bDb33E-1760020008966
0x56546de2c867c2b40fdb138cd20f8de4b4bdb33e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.42K
- Realized PnL
- $6.57K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.6%
- Current value
- $4.81K
- Potential payout
- $12.47K
- Potential profit
- $7.66K
- Multiplier
- 2.59x
- User PnL
- $2.9K
No position
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $3.69K
- Potential payout
- $3.89K
- Potential profit
- $208.32
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $252.8
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $392
- Potential payout
- $3.41K
- Potential profit
- $3.02K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.41K
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $45.9
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $3.35K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$464.1
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $452.11
- Potential payout
- $3.35K
- Potential profit
- $2.9K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$731.56
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56%
- Current value
- $1.76K
- Potential payout
- $3.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.38K
- Multiplier
- 1.79x
- User PnL
- -$314.93
No position
James Comey arrested by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.83K
- Potential profit
- $2.83K
- User PnL
- -$587
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.4%
- Current value
- $2.01K
- Potential payout
- $2.67K
- Potential profit
- $655.92
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$112.21
No position
Will Trump praise Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.91K
- Potential profit
- $1.91K
- User PnL
- -$209.61
Yes position
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- User PnL
- -$903.4
Yes position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.3%
- Current value
- $830.36
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $335.06
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$164.29
Yes position
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $531.32
- Potential profit
- $531.32
- User PnL
- -$396.97
Yes position
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $325.43
- Potential payout
- $451.99
- Potential profit
- $126.56
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- -$32.77
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $386.97
- Potential profit
- $386.97
- User PnL
- -$92.87
No position
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $321.1
- Potential profit
- $321.1
- User PnL
- -$244.04
No position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$216.12
Yes position
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.64
- Potential profit
- $132.64
- User PnL
- -$16.82
Yes position
Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.73
- Potential profit
- $42.73
- User PnL
- -$5.17
Yes position
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.61
- Potential profit
- $32.61
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $925
No position
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $894.86
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $734
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $571.2
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $414.32
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $370
No position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- $108.25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.21
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $85.36
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.3
No position
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.55
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.89
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $48
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.85
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.95
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.11
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.3
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.46
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.09
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.31
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.89
No position
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.69
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 12% 858.03 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 13% 225.32 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 14% 7,879.07 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 15% 10 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 15% 2,125.82 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 57.7% 5 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 57.5% 180.08 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 58.9% 20 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 58.9% 20 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 72% 8.77 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 69% 13.54 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 68.3% 40 shares