Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.28K
- Potential profit
- $3.28K
- User PnL
- -$941.06
Polymarket Trader
HotSulphurMAGA
0x566d32ba7a326f1a1bb0b7d3555215f14421d58f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.03K
- Realized PnL
- $22.26K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $189.57
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $33.47
No position
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $988
- Potential profit
- $988
- User PnL
- -$67
Yes position
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $927.25
- Potential profit
- $927.25
- User PnL
- -$330
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $773.16
- Potential payout
- $925.94
- Potential profit
- $152.78
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $23.15
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $225.72
- Potential payout
- $571.44
- Potential profit
- $345.72
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $25.71
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $491.08
- Potential profit
- $491.08
- User PnL
- -$63.84
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $361.06
- Potential payout
- $401.4
- Potential profit
- $40.34
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $111.06
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.9%
- Current value
- $98.81
- Potential payout
- $396.83
- Potential profit
- $298.02
- Multiplier
- 4.02x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $386.21
- Potential profit
- $386.21
- User PnL
- -$73.38
No position
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Current value
- $305.77
- Potential payout
- $331.46
- Potential profit
- $25.69
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $5.77
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $311.43
- Potential profit
- $311.43
- User PnL
- -$109
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $289.59
- Potential profit
- $289.59
- User PnL
- -$75
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $19.24
- Potential payout
- $226.34
- Potential profit
- $207.11
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$80.76
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Current value
- $42.74
- Potential payout
- $207.47
- Potential profit
- $164.73
- Multiplier
- 4.85x
- User PnL
- -$7.26
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $194.74
- Potential profit
- $194.74
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $76.72
- Potential payout
- $172.41
- Potential profit
- $95.69
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $26.72
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $164.84
- Potential profit
- $164.84
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $89.52
- Potential payout
- $161.29
- Potential profit
- $71.77
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$10.48
Yes position
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156.25
- Potential profit
- $156.25
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $137.56
- Potential profit
- $137.56
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
New arrests in Charlie Kirk shooting by September 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$30
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.44K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
Yes position
US military action against Iran before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $989.88
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $962.57
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $771.95
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $737.82
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $671.43
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $481.27
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $375.9
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $316.67
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $289.47
Yes position
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.87
Yes position
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.63
Yes position
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225.92
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $222.58
Yes position
Israel military action against Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.32
Yes position
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.08
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?No 6.8% 988 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo 82% 609.76 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes 35% 571.43 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 29.8% 100.67 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 68% 73.53 shares
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No 90.5% 331.46 shares
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 62.3% 401.4 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 70% 40 shares
- Hurricanes vs. CanadiensHurricanes 98.4% 203.22 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 81% 617.28 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 24.1% 207.47 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No 99.1% 504.54 shares