No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $6.89
- Potential payout
- $393.93
- Potential profit
- $387.04
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$5.11
Polymarket Trader
tomkat07
0x56954e8aafb95d48719ac1256de567a35c4b002b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $68.88
- Realized PnL
- $5.65
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $8.89
- Potential payout
- $88.88
- Potential profit
- $79.99
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- $0.89
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $79.84
- Potential profit
- $79.28
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$3.7
Yes position
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $46.66
- Potential profit
- $39.66
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $0.51
- Potential payout
- $40.82
- Potential profit
- $40.31
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.27
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $4.14
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $24.43
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $6.14
- Potential payout
- $27.27
- Potential profit
- $21.13
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.7%
- Current value
- $4.26
- Potential payout
- $22.86
- Potential profit
- $18.59
- Multiplier
- 5.36x
- User PnL
- -$3.74
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $22.35
- Potential profit
- $20.9
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
Discord IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.7%
- Current value
- $8.64
- Potential payout
- $18.51
- Potential profit
- $9.87
- Multiplier
- 2.14x
- User PnL
- $0.65
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $13.09
- Potential profit
- $8.91
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $8.48
- Potential payout
- $11.94
- Potential profit
- $3.46
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $2.2
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.8
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $4.8
- Potential profit
- $4.25
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $4.67
- Potential profit
- $3.65
- Multiplier
- 4.56x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $3.71
- Potential profit
- $2.47
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $2.03
- Potential payout
- $2.88
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $1.14
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $3.58
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $2.01
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Multiplier
- 28.57x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.9%
- Multiplier
- 5.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 32.3%
- Multiplier
- 3.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
No position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.1%
- Multiplier
- 9.95x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
No position
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Yes 8% 18.75 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Yes 67% 11.94 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No 32% 23.51 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No 26% 29.62 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 41% 19.27 shares
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes 31% 23.51 shares
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Yes 22% 5 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes 21% 33.33 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Yes 36% 6 shares
- Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?No 30% 22.75 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 32.1% 22.03 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Yes 13% 33.33 shares