Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $126.76
- Potential profit
- $122.58
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- -$13.82
Polymarket Trader
0x56A45Becc0f26223C0EBd0107429919497fc4AdF-1767917718948
0x56a45becc0f26223c0ebd0107429919497fc4adf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $28.86
- Realized PnL
- -$14.84
- Win rate
- 14.3%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $21.19
- Potential payout
- $66.23
- Potential profit
- $45.04
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- $12.19
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $2.31
- Potential payout
- $30.77
- Potential profit
- $28.46
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.69
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $1.18
- Potential payout
- $29.11
- Potential profit
- $27.93
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$4.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.57
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $2.22
Yes position
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.28
Yes position
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.22
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.87
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.41
No position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes 19% 10.53 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes 14% 107.14 shares
- Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Yes 29.2% 15.67 shares
- Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?Yes 38% 12.19 shares
- Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?Yes 41% 12.2 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Yes 11% 111.11 shares
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes 14% 57.14 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No 36% 4.05 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No 42% 15.68 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No 51% 15.69 shares
- Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?Yes 7.4% 104.12 shares
- Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?Yes 7.7% 104.13 shares