jeffkatsu

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $38.38
Potential profit: $38.36
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $36.83
Potential profit: $36.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $36.83
Potential profit: $36.7
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$3.22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $36.83
Potential profit: $36.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $36.83
Potential profit: $36.55
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $4.42
Potential payout: $36.83
Potential profit: $32.41
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $33.88
Potential profit: $33.86
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$17.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $32.06
Potential profit: $31.73
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$2.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $32.06
Potential profit: $31.92
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 85°F or below on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $32.06
Potential profit: $31.98
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $31.83
Potential profit: $31.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $8.85
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $21.15
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $6.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or higher on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.92
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.74
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.47

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.91
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$2.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $27.06
Potential profit: $27.02
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $26.83
Potential profit: $26.82
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 2?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $26.83
Potential profit: $26.63
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.24

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $446.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $389.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $284.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 2?

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2?

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $233.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $233.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $231.01

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $228.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $218.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $215.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.92

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $196.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 4?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $178.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5?