Yes position
Will Plovdiv host Eurovision 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $3.08
- Potential payout
- $385.51
- Potential profit
- $382.43
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- $1.86
Polymarket Trader
imstupid
0x57c767ddfe1164aed4573e62ad6bca38004104a0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $121.38
- Realized PnL
- $409.89
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.31
- Potential profit
- $50.31
- User PnL
- -$18.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $48.72
- Potential payout
- $48.89
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- User PnL
- $7.7
Yes position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.84
- Potential profit
- $38.84
- User PnL
- -$10.1
Yes position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $15.28
- Potential payout
- $21.37
- Potential profit
- $6.09
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $5.59
- Potential payout
- $19.61
- Potential profit
- $14.03
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$1.28
Y
Yes position
Will Trump say "Fake News" during remarks at the Burning Hills Amphitheater?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $11.73
- Potential payout
- $14.76
- Potential profit
- $3.03
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $4.35
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $4.26
- Potential payout
- $14.43
- Potential profit
- $10.17
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$2.38
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $12.01
- Potential payout
- $13.89
- Potential profit
- $1.88
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $12.52
- Potential payout
- $12.99
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will Varna host Eurovision 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $11.87
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $8.06
- Potential payout
- $11.77
- Potential profit
- $3.71
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $0.29
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.27
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.4
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $51.31
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.39
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.9
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.74
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.8
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $18.35
Yes position
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.52
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.51
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.29
Yes position
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.56
Yes position
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.43
No position
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.41
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.66
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.63
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.31
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.27
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.45
Yes position
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.55
No position
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.49
No position
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 67% 6.89 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 84% 6.8 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 86% 7.37 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 46% 19.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 96.68 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 97.2% 1.84 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 53% 3 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 91% 1.84 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 40% 6.47 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?No 11.8% 14.87 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?No 8.1% 7.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 37% 7.59 shares