Polymarket Trader

0x57f4d87754D4169f369d64a34A4E8FB405958195-1765237287086

0x57f4d87754d4169f369d64a34a4e8fb405958195

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.08
Realized PnL: $28.5
Win rate: 81.8%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Claude 4.8 released by June 15?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.47
Potential profit: $88.47
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$1

No position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.1
Potential profit: $35.1
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.04
Potential profit: $31.04
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.15
Potential profit: $24.15
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24
Potential profit: $24
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.86
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.58
Potential profit: $10.58
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $4.08
Potential payout: $5.95
Potential profit: $1.88
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.32
Potential profit: $5.32
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $3.45
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.69
Potential profit: $1.69
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 9?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.58

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.68

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Yes 59% 1.69 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 63% 1.59 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Yes 29% 3.45 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Yes 36% 5.56 shares
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Yes 26% 8.92 shares
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Yes 47.3% 10.58 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

Yes 98% 1.02 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Yes 83% 1.2 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 77% 1.3 shares
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Yes 56% 8.93 shares
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Yes 84% 5.95 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 94% 5.32 shares