Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.7%
- Current value
- $16.73K
- Potential payout
- $100.16K
- Potential profit
- $83.43K
- Multiplier
- 5.99x
- User PnL
- -$33.35K
Polymarket Trader
Montaigne
0x583582716cc49794789cacdf7aeffbdbd0b79404
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $139.02K
- Realized PnL
- $18.17K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 83.3%
- Current value
- $83.43K
- Potential payout
- $100.16K
- Potential profit
- $16.73K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $33.35K
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $14.89K
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $105
- User PnL
- $2.3K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.63K
- Potential profit
- $13.63K
- User PnL
- -$8.23K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.7K
- Potential profit
- $12.7K
- User PnL
- -$8.48K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $10.81K
- Potential payout
- $10.85K
- Potential profit
- $37.96
- User PnL
- $839.73
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.5K
- Potential profit
- $10.5K
- User PnL
- -$8.47K
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.3K
- Potential profit
- $8.3K
- User PnL
- -$3.75K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.18K
- Potential profit
- $8.18K
- User PnL
- -$3.05K
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.46K
- Potential profit
- $5.46K
- User PnL
- -$1.53K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $456.32
- Potential payout
- $3.15K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$2.01K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2.81K
- Potential payout
- $3.1K
- Potential profit
- $294.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $320.54
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $2.24K
- Potential payout
- $2.56K
- Potential profit
- $319.99
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $542.33
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$726.25
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $226.58
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.45K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$366.14
No position
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $1.1K
- Potential payout
- $1.51K
- Potential profit
- $415.35
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $112.22
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.49K
- Potential payout
- $1.51K
- Potential profit
- $15.1
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $10.54
No position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $54.68
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $100.06
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.3%
- Current value
- $228.96
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- Multiplier
- 5.77x
- User PnL
- -$13.11
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $1.21K
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $7.94
- User PnL
- $204.04
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $122.8
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $64.32
No position
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$522.2
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $986.49
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $15.35
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$648.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.52K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.19K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $722.45
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $702.16
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $654.73
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $616.39
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $487.08
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $472.26
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $413.89
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $364.06
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $337.44
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.47
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304.88
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.56
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.87
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.41
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $209.31
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175.57
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.02
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.33
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.83
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97.7% 20 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 87% 20 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 96.8% 20 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97% 20 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 97.8% 20 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 97.9% 20 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 97.8% 20 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97% 20 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97% 20 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97% 20 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 97% 20 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 63% 15 shares