Yes position
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.95
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$10.25
Polymarket Trader
IceLightning
0x58641dbd9128db522f206285343b79aae8c976b9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $80.22
- Realized PnL
- $9.56K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.18
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.83
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.13
Yes position
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $1.26
- Potential payout
- $41.37
- Potential profit
- $40.11
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$2.58
Yes position
Brex IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.58
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $39.42
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$2.74
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $19.59
- Potential payout
- $37.68
- Potential profit
- $18.09
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- -$1.55
Yes position
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $1.64
- Potential payout
- $36.45
- Potential profit
- $34.81
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$4.92
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $16.7
- Potential payout
- $34.8
- Potential profit
- $18.1
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- $3.78
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $1.44
- Potential payout
- $32.1
- Potential profit
- $30.66
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.89
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $2.66
- Potential payout
- $20.43
- Potential profit
- $17.77
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.56
Yes position
Glean IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.3
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $2.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.9
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.36
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- -$1.16
Yes position
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $0.79
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.21
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.59
Yes position
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.33
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$3.13
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $10.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $9.3
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- -$2.1
Yes position
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $1.48
- Potential payout
- $14.76
- Potential profit
- $13.29
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Yes position
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.23
- Potential payout
- $12.6
- Potential profit
- $12.37
- Multiplier
- 55.56x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $6.05
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $3.95
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $2.85
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.1
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $5.51
- Potential profit
- $5.19
- Multiplier
- 17.54x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $1.98
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.03
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Down position
BNB Up or Down on July 2?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $2.73
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.28
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Down position
Solana Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $1.72
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.28
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Down position
XRP Up or Down on July 2?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $3.13
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.88
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $1.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $690.97
Up position
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $669.99
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $630.94
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $584.81
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $493.99
Down position
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $455.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $450.92
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $443.18
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $397.01
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9PM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $395.85
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.38
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $376.22
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $338.26
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.86
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320.85
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315.4
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $299.17
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $297.31
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $293.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.38
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $282.55
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $281.24
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $273.81
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $270.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETUp 36% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETUp 36% 5 shares
- Dogecoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETDown 59% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ETDown 72% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETUp 28% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETDown 68% 10.6 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETUp 40% 19.8 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ETUp 29% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ETDown 56% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ETDown 56% 6.75 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ETDown 92% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ETDown 67% 6.75 shares