tzquantalpha001

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $2.38K
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $21.58
User PnL: $50.58

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.14K
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $259.33
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$19.78

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $20.35
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $11.06

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $69.72
Potential payout: $820.27
Potential profit: $750.55
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$49.98

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $767.23
Potential payout: $772.64
Potential profit: $5.41
User PnL: $14.36

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $654.09
Potential payout: $756.17
Potential profit: $102.08
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $15.36

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $376.96
Potential payout: $731.96
Potential profit: $355
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$141.83

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $606.77
Potential payout: $615.39
Potential profit: $8.62
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $41.61

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $434.55
Potential payout: $603.54
Potential profit: $168.99
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: -$2.45

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $512.42
Potential payout: $513.7
Potential profit: $1.28
User PnL: $9.05

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $423.37
Potential payout: $513.17
Potential profit: $89.81
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$10.43

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $431.17
Potential payout: $504.29
Potential profit: $73.12
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $7.38

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $277.1
Potential payout: $443.35
Potential profit: $166.26
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$11.08

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $344.35
Potential payout: $425.12
Potential profit: $80.77
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $3.18

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $371.21
Potential payout: $410.18
Potential profit: $38.97
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$1.9

No position

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $375.52
Potential payout: $391.78
Potential profit: $16.26
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $9.62

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $320.14
Potential payout: $353.75
Potential profit: $33.61
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$6.38

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $337.51
Potential payout: $352.12
Potential profit: $14.61
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $5.86

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $307.7
Potential payout: $336.28
Potential profit: $28.58
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $21.07

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.38
Potential profit: $333.38
User PnL: -$52.48

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $309.44
Potential payout: $319.84
Potential profit: $10.39
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.1%
Current value: $291.29
Potential payout: $309.71
Potential profit: $18.43
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$13.15

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $302.19
Potential payout: $307.1
Potential profit: $4.91
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $6.29

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $103.35
Potential payout: $275.61
Potential profit: $172.26
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$4.69

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33K

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134.75

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.1

No position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.52

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $36.66

Yes position

Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.37

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.68

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.84

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.73

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.39

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.08

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.32

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.39

Yes position

Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.18

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.98

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $6.36

Yes position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.63

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.59

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.91

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.62

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.04

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.01

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?