Polymarket Trader

0x59253f9a0Cdf254fa4518FD3aAe2541f9e0AB194-1730780830728

0x59253f9a0cdf254fa4518fd3aae2541f9e0ab194

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $29.7K
Realized PnL: $144.01K
Win rate: 45.8%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $19.87K
Potential payout: $13.25M
Potential profit: $13.23M
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.54K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $620
Potential payout: $1.24M
Potential profit: $1.24M
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.09K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $175
Potential payout: $350K
Potential profit: $349.83K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$524.65

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $233.37K
Potential profit: $233.37K
User PnL: -$116.95K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.97K
Potential profit: $111.97K
User PnL: -$30.84K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.6K
Potential profit: $61.6K
User PnL: -$3.19K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $8.75K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.75K

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $225
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.78K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $25

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.77K
Potential profit: $9.77K
User PnL: -$586.41

Yes position

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $58.79
Potential payout: $345.85
Potential profit: $287.05
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$41.21

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $338.98
Potential profit: $338.98
User PnL: -$200

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.74K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.6K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.81K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.81K

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $709.09

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $707.79

Yes position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $649

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.88

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.66

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$25.51

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$78.26

Connecticut Huskies position

Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$130.29

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$142.28

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$150

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.3% 177,996.55 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 0.2% 25,873.2 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.3% 2,000,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 5,000,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 250,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 1,000,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 1,000,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 1,000,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 1,000,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 1,000,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 0.4% 100,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 0.3% 50,000 shares