Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
Centaurspencer
0x59396852844a48bce1d8148b9b9cf76e75ff7560
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $222.79
- Realized PnL
- $81.62
- Win rate
- 68.8%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $56.45
- Potential payout
- $322.58
- Potential profit
- $266.13
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $46.45
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $189.26
- Potential profit
- $189.26
- User PnL
- -$22
Yes position
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $50.38
- Potential payout
- $124.41
- Potential profit
- $74.02
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $14.39
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $8.75
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $74.58
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$6.25
Yes position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.23
- Potential payout
- $77.64
- Potential profit
- $77.4
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$9.77
Yes position
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $21.74
- Potential payout
- $72.45
- Potential profit
- $50.72
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.26
No position
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $1.46
- Potential payout
- $70.99
- Potential profit
- $69.54
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$13.54
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $61.97
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $0.53
- User PnL
- $41.97
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $57.57
- Potential profit
- $57.57
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $9.68
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $11.6
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $20.83
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $20.83
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.88
- Potential profit
- $15.88
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $2.54
- Potential payout
- $15.38
- Potential profit
- $12.85
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0.54
Yes position
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $14.29
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.64
- Potential profit
- $13.64
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.16
- Potential profit
- $13.16
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $9.59
- Potential payout
- $13.04
- Potential profit
- $3.46
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $6.59
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.46
No position
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.87
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.15
Yes position
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.13
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.2
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.19
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.74
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16
Yes position
Will Trump say "Military" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump say "White House Faith Office" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump say "Peace" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump say "God" 7+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 11.1% 90.09 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 6% 333.33 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 23% 13.04 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes 87% 3.63 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 3.1% 322.58 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 12.1% 82.64 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 12.1% 16.53 shares
- Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?No 21.5% 46.41 shares
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes 28.4% 70.44 shares
- Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?No 20.3% 24.58 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?Yes 0.8% 1,257.96 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?Yes 0.9% 1,111.11 shares