Yes position
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75K
- Potential profit
- $75K
- User PnL
- -$150
Polymarket Trader
Jerzy
0x59432fa8141b0ddf25f64c9fc90cdb5672402ef2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $34.57K
- Realized PnL
- $100.59K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.51K
- Potential profit
- $21.51K
- User PnL
- -$258.53
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$2.23K
Yes position
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.55K
- Potential profit
- $18.55K
- User PnL
- -$182.82
No position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.63K
- Potential profit
- $15.63K
- User PnL
- -$7.18K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.1K
- Potential profit
- $15.1K
- User PnL
- -$1.84K
Yes position
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.44K
- Potential profit
- $13.44K
- User PnL
- -$148.42
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13K
- Potential profit
- $13K
- User PnL
- -$4.82K
No position
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $10.08K
- Potential payout
- $10.1K
- Potential profit
- $20.21
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $8.62K
- Potential payout
- $8.63K
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- User PnL
- $551.33
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.28K
- Potential profit
- $8.28K
- User PnL
- -$5.1K
Yes position
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.27K
- Potential profit
- $8.27K
- User PnL
- -$204.79
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $8.1K
- Potential payout
- $8.11K
- Potential profit
- $12.16
- User PnL
- $280.18
No position
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $7K
- User PnL
- -$1.21K
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $940.99
- Potential payout
- $6.49K
- Potential profit
- $5.55K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.39K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.2K
- Potential payout
- $6.2K
- Potential profit
- $3.1
- User PnL
- $198.94
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$776.66
No position
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.62K
- Potential profit
- $5.62K
- User PnL
- -$1.32K
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.5K
- Potential profit
- $5.5K
- User PnL
- -$1.95K
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$36.56
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$902.89
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $624.32
- Potential payout
- $4.8K
- Potential profit
- $4.18K
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$677.77
No position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.15K
- Potential profit
- $4.15K
- User PnL
- -$84.11
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.76K
- Potential profit
- $3.76K
- User PnL
- -$35.57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.87K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.17K
Yes position
US-China trade deal before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.48K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.53K
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.02K
No position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.94K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.91K
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.36K
Yes position
Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.98K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55K
No position
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.07K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.03K
No position
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65K
No position
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.43K
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.39K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2K
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.97K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?Yes 0.4% 686.48 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?No 96.7% 3,102.01 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?No 95.4% 1,152.5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 98.5% 1,015.23 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?Yes 73% 1,500 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?Yes 79% 215.19 shares
- Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?No 97.7% 409.35 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 97.8% 2,556.24 shares
- Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?No 97.9% 510.51 shares
- Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?No 98.7% 5,065.6 shares
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Yes 15% 99.53 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?No 97% 1,854.81 shares