Polymarket Trader

carpe-noctem

0x596a78ff6de24b12fd39f827aecf93975e2f7a0f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.55K
Realized PnL: $13.32K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.98K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $70.95
Potential payout: $591.24
Potential profit: $520.29
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$4.74

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $494.25
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$40

eternal premium position

Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$197.1

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $54.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $445.5
Multiplier: 9.17x
User PnL: $25.8

QoR position

Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 1 Winner

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$24.9

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.9%
Current value: $80.05
Potential payout: $473.66
Potential profit: $393.61
Multiplier: 5.92x
User PnL: $10.64

No position

Will Croatia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $455.29
Potential payout: $462.93
Potential profit: $7.64
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.33

Yes position

Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $22.94
Potential payout: $445.41
Potential profit: $422.47
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$7.2

Yes position

Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $46.57
Potential payout: $404.99
Potential profit: $358.42
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$16.07

Yes position

Will Morocco score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $399
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.89

Yes position

Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $92
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $308
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: -$34.18

Yes position

Will Germany be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $36
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $364
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $9.19
Potential payout: $399.58
Potential profit: $390.39
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $392
Potential profit: $392
User PnL: -$50.93

Yes position

Will Austria be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $7.83
Potential payout: $391.41
Potential profit: $383.58
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: $5.04

Yes position

Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $45.99
Potential payout: $383.21
Potential profit: $337.23
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$18.04

NRG Academy position

Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $366.85
Potential profit: $366.85
User PnL: -$85.21

Yes position

Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $23.15
Potential payout: $356.14
Potential profit: $332.99
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$31.95

Yes position

Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $115.89
Potential payout: $351.18
Potential profit: $235.29
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$63.21

No position

Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $338.89
Potential payout: $351
Potential profit: $12.11
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $16.85

Yes position

Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $38.54
Potential payout: $350.37
Potential profit: $311.83
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$5.14

Yes position

Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $35
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $315
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Senegal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 13.3%
Current value: $46.11
Potential payout: $347.99
Potential profit: $301.88
Multiplier: 7.55x
User PnL: $25.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

WRAITH PCIFIC position

Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77K

Bubliki position

LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21K

WRAITH PCIFIC position

Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $983.81

Ghools Esports position

Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team RA'AD - Map 2 Winner

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $812.52

Yes position

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $642.83

NEW VISION position

Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $568.54

Miami Heretics position

Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $556.62

YFT Esports position

Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $514.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on December 21?

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $511.88

WRAITH PCIFIC position

Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5)

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $496

Subtop De France position

Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $488.45

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $486.38

Down position

WD-40 Company (WDFC) Up or Down After Earnings?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $454.45

Yakult Brothers position

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $411.74

Ici Japon Corp. Esport position

LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Regular Season

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $410

No position

Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $405.87

MIBR Academy position

Map Handicap: UNO (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5)

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $396

LiXO eSports position

Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $351.64

MANA eSports position

Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.55

Leo Team position

Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $334

Kiwoom DRX position

LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $306.36

No position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $190?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $296.18

Miami Heretics position

Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 2 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.8

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 5?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage

Division One 41% 100 shares
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner

largadosypelados 50% 148.62 shares
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs

largadosypelados 47% 100 shares
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs

largadosypelados 47% 135 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage

Division One 55% 40 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage

Division One 56.9% 75 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 2 Winner

QoR 55% 40 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage

QoR 35% 30 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 1 Winner

QoR 5% 200 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 1 Winner

QoR 5% 290 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 1 Winner

QoR 4% 10 shares
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 2 Winner

QoR 53% 61 shares