Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $1.51
- Potential payout
- $18.35
- Potential profit
- $16.83
- Multiplier
- 12.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.49
Polymarket Trader
thunderfrog
0x5a1a32ec6c0b2896a4e9e3d7a48098ec88e92983
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $101.24
- Realized PnL
- $106.98
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $15.63
- Potential profit
- $14.93
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $11.63
- Potential profit
- $10.98
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.8%
- Current value
- $1.66
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $9.58
- Multiplier
- 6.78x
- User PnL
- $0.66
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.1%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $9.43
- Potential profit
- $8.49
- Multiplier
- 9.95x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $8.62
- Potential payout
- $8.62
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.62
No position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $5.74
- Potential payout
- $7.81
- Potential profit
- $2.07
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $0.74
No position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $1.89
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $4.55
- Potential payout
- $6.95
- Potential profit
- $2.4
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $4.55
- Potential payout
- $6.94
- Potential profit
- $2.4
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
No position
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $6.94
- Potential profit
- $6.92
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$4.98
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $6.01
- Potential payout
- $6.94
- Potential profit
- $0.94
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.01
No position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $5.56
- Potential payout
- $6.82
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.58
- Potential payout
- $6.58
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.58
No position
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $5.36
- Potential payout
- $6.54
- Potential profit
- $1.18
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $5.19
- Potential payout
- $6.33
- Potential profit
- $1.14
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.23
- Potential payout
- $6.23
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.23
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $3.85
- Potential payout
- $6.21
- Potential profit
- $2.36
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- -$1.15
No position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $5.5
- Potential payout
- $6.21
- Potential profit
- $0.71
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.9%
- Current value
- $1.17
- Potential payout
- $6.21
- Potential profit
- $5.04
- Multiplier
- 5.31x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $5.24
- Potential payout
- $6.13
- Potential profit
- $0.89
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $6.1
- Potential profit
- $1.07
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $5.27
- Potential payout
- $6.1
- Potential profit
- $0.82
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.07
- Potential payout
- $6.07
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.07
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 20?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.04
No position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.43
No position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.91
No position
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 28?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.43
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.38
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.1
No position
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.08
No position
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.01
No position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85
No position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.82
No position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.73
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
No position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.58
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.52
No position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.46
No position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.44
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26?No 88% 2.84 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 28?No 99.5% 2.51 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?No 93.1% 2.69 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?No 82% 3.05 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?No 93% 2.69 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?No 82% 3.05 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 28?No 99.5% 2.51 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 28?No 96% 2.6 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 28?No 99.5% 2.51 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 28?No 99.4% 2.52 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 28?No 98.9% 2.53 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28?No 98.9% 2.53 shares