No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $144.99
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $55
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $9
Polymarket Trader
Trtr3
0x5a449cc0b0830555908ae15f9b8574d7d1a25616
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $396.07
- Realized PnL
- $1.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $5.17
- Potential payout
- $120.42
- Potential profit
- $115.25
- Multiplier
- 23.31x
- User PnL
- -$17.85
N
No position
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $101.06
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $3.94
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $24.46
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $0.54
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.81
Yes position
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $20.11
- Potential payout
- $20.22
- Potential profit
- $0.11
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $12.8
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $7.2
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $19.78
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $10.49
- Potential payout
- $10.5
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $9.35
- Potential profit
- $9.22
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Y
Yes position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $0.41
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $8.68
- Multiplier
- 21.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.59
Yes position
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $5.48
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $2.48
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.53
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.4%
- Current value
- $1.22
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.78
- Multiplier
- 4.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $2.88
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.13
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.4%
- Current value
- $4.37
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.63
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $2.73
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.28
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.7%
- Current value
- $4.58
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.42
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $4.99
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $3.43
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.58
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$0.43
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $4.88
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $4.94
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
Ends Jan 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.8
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.91
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.62
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.95
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.7
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.87
Demoor position
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor
Ends Dec 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.67
No position
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.45
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.4
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.22
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.48
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.6
No position
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.87
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.1
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.43
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8AM ET
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.53
No position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.52
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.9
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.74
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.81
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No 96.3% 100 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 99.9% 152.18 shares
- Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?No 96.3% 5 shares
- Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?No 98.6% 10.5 shares
- Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?Yes 98.6% 6.12 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 98.3% 50 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 97.7% 45 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 96.6% 30 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 97% 20 shares
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes 87% 0.83 shares
- Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Yes 92% 45 shares
- Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Yes 83% 5 shares