Polymarket Trader

Melonada

0x5a8df27cc25e05b088f7c100e793be449f2864e5

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $137.1
Realized PnL: $97.95
Win rate: 95.5%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $103.89
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $7.22
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $3.89

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.14
Potential profit: $57.14
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.61
Potential profit: $29.61
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $6.99
Potential payout: $25.9
Potential profit: $18.91
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$13.01

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$10

Thunder position

Spurs vs. Thunder

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $14.71
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.14
Potential profit: $11.14
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $6.16
Potential payout: $10.64
Potential profit: $4.47
Multiplier: 1.73x
User PnL: $4.16

No position

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.05
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $2.71
Potential payout: $6.71
Potential profit: $4
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $4.37
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $3.77
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $2.9
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $1.77

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $5.38
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.38

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $1.94
Potential payout: $3.85
Potential profit: $1.9
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.84

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.05

Yes position

Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.67

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.54

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.55

No position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.23

Yes position

Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22

Maayan Laron position

ITF Gaborone: Maayan Laron vs Elena Jamshidi

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.97

Yes position

Will Bolton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-14?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.63

No position

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.61

Yes position

Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96

Spurs position

NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.04

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 30% 6.67 shares
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

No 50% 10 shares
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Yes 30% 6.67 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?

Yes 52% 3.85 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

Yes 77.2% 25.9 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?

Yes 36% 5.56 shares
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Yes 44.7% 6.71 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

No 90% 111.11 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.8% 10.64 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Yes 36% 83.33 shares
Spurs vs. Thunder

Thunder 68% 14.71 shares
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 3.5% 57.14 shares