Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $7.22
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$2.78
Polymarket Trader
0x5ac9...b12d
0x5ac99d7d8023f6b7f10f8b40a087149e3aa9b12d
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $39.69
- Realized PnL
- $84.43
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.65
- Potential payout
- $549.18
- Potential profit
- $547.53
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $437.23
- Potential profit
- $437.23
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $4.29
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $352.86
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
No position
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $222.75
- Potential profit
- $222.75
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $183.57
- Potential profit
- $183.57
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $166.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156.25
- Potential profit
- $156.25
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128.21
- Potential profit
- $128.21
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $1.06
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $110.06
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $4.67
- Potential payout
- $107.53
- Potential profit
- $102.86
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.33
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $6.23
- Potential payout
- $95.83
- Potential profit
- $89.61
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$3.77
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $4.86
- Potential payout
- $94.34
- Potential profit
- $89.48
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $92.59
- Potential profit
- $92.59
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $4.72
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $50.83
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $33.46
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.67
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.24
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.27
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.86
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $6.52
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.18
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.17
No position
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? (April 19)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.66
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.37
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $3.87
Yes position
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Israel" this week?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.29
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.1%
- Multiplier
- 4.99x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.8%
- Multiplier
- 2.45x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.91
No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 39.2% 2.55 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes 57% 1.75 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 28% 17.86 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 35.1% 5.7 shares
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 0.9% 111.11 shares
- Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?No 35% 2.86 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?Yes 27% 18.52 shares
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 40% 12.95 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 84% 11.75 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 47% 2.13 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes 9% 55.56 shares
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes 34% 14.71 shares