Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $4.04
- Potential payout
- $164.77
- Potential profit
- $160.73
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$14.36
Polymarket Trader
whaleP1
0x5b1d577f26af007689b8b2f58763dafb89b88895
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $968.4
- Realized PnL
- $1.17K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $153.24
- Potential payout
- $154.55
- Potential profit
- $1.31
- User PnL
- $3.35
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.3%
- Current value
- $32.85
- Potential payout
- $147.65
- Potential profit
- $114.8
- Multiplier
- 4.49x
- User PnL
- -$4.91
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $51.08
- Potential payout
- $145.95
- Potential profit
- $94.87
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- -$27.95
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 37.8%
- Current value
- $39.77
- Potential payout
- $105.34
- Potential profit
- $65.57
- Multiplier
- 2.65x
- User PnL
- $4.9
Yes position
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.3%
- Current value
- $76.26
- Potential payout
- $96.23
- Potential profit
- $19.97
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $3.76
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $49.64
- Potential payout
- $84.85
- Potential profit
- $35.21
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.02
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $47.17
- Potential payout
- $82.04
- Potential profit
- $34.87
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $56.93
- Potential payout
- $75.4
- Potential profit
- $18.47
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $2.36
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $71.39
- Potential payout
- $71.93
- Potential profit
- $0.54
- User PnL
- $2.11
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.95
- Potential profit
- $60.95
- User PnL
- -$26.8
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $52.89
- Potential payout
- $60.45
- Potential profit
- $7.56
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $7.6
N
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $58.02
- Potential payout
- $58.46
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- User PnL
- $4.21
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $52.06
- Potential payout
- $53.15
- Potential profit
- $1.09
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $48.64
- Potential payout
- $48.88
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- User PnL
- $1.72
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $36.09
- Potential payout
- $36.25
- Potential profit
- $0.16
- User PnL
- $0.76
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.1%
- Current value
- $29.53
- Potential payout
- $35.11
- Potential profit
- $5.58
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $3.7
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $32.21
- Potential payout
- $35.01
- Potential profit
- $2.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.76
- Potential profit
- $29.76
- User PnL
- -$9.82
N
No position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $17.8
- Potential payout
- $23.58
- Potential profit
- $5.78
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$1.54
No position
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $18.1
- Potential payout
- $18.37
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.57
Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $11.04
- Potential payout
- $18.25
- Potential profit
- $7.21
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $16.41
- Potential payout
- $16.98
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $13.24
- Potential payout
- $16.98
- Potential profit
- $3.74
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $0.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $204.54
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $191.36
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.13
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $72.03
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.24
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48.31
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $45.19
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.79
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $35.64
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.12
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.95
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.42
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $29
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.06
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.9
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.79
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.81
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.8
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $20.57
No position
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.78
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.19
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.25
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.15
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 71% 5.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 99% 5.25 shares
- Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?Yes 92% 1.42 shares
- Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?Yes 92% 1.91 shares
- Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?Yes 92% 12.33 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 82% 19.09 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 98.7% 61.52 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 70% 18.62 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 32.2% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 98.2% 9.1 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 91.9% 20.13 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 97% 12.51 shares