Polymarket Trader

merge777

0x5b71f3a489a1085f7cb4d3d05a61993f429dcb46

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $14
Realized PnL: $1.1K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.5K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.92K
Potential profit: $1.92K
User PnL: -$55

Yes position

DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $1.78K
User PnL: -$12.49

No position

GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $1.55K
User PnL: -$66

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.4K
User PnL: -$17

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.13K
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $901.86
Potential profit: $901.86
User PnL: -$24.35

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $847.46
Potential profit: $847.46
User PnL: -$50

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $687.28
Potential profit: $687.28
User PnL: -$56

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $541.75
Potential profit: $541.75
User PnL: -$191

Yes position

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $541.39
Potential profit: $541.39
User PnL: -$50.36

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $14
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $385.99
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.98
Potential profit: $299.98
User PnL: -$51

No position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $249.97
Potential profit: $249.97
User PnL: -$5

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $231.58
Potential profit: $231.58
User PnL: -$44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.51
Potential profit: $148.51
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.8

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $88

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.82

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.79

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.67

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.65

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.63

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.47

No position

Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.17

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 95% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Up 22% 5.99 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Up 49% 6 shares
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?

No 39% 2.32 shares
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?

No 43% 2.33 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.4% 2,500 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 30.5% 10 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 18.8% 10 shares
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Yes 0.1% 5,000 shares
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Yes 4.2% 127.14 shares
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Yes 15.8% 97.7 shares
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?

Yes 1.1% 1,500 shares